I’m almost certain it’s written into the DNA of Kings Of War types that shameless self-promotions are a definite no-no… so please excuse this inadvertent act of self-promotion on behalf of myself and my esteemed colleague Mike Goodman of this institutional parish and to those whose papers are linked here.

Responding to the post-Butler moment of reflection and engagement across government, we secured funding from the AHRC and interesting people to write on interesting topics to provide lessons learned from history, arts and humanities. This is the mainstay of this project (which has multiple dissemination routes) and the book that proceeded it, which has disappeared from our side bar >>>> but which is titled ‘Learning Lessons from the Secret Past’, available in all good book shops etc etc. I have been told that I could nab the following text from the online publication series website, which provides links to the first two papers, which I would hope KoW readers would find of interest.

1. Lessons Learnt: Post-Mubarak developments within the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood (pdf 503kb)
December 2011 – Dr Lorenzo Vidino, Center for Security Studies, ETH Zurich, Part of the ‘Lessons Learnt’ series of AHRC policy publications.

2. Lessons Learnt: “Islamic, Independent, Perfect and Strong”: Parsing the Taliban’s Strategic Intentions, 2001-2011 (pdf 644kb)
January 2012 – Alex Strick van Linschoten and Felix Kuehn, Part of the ‘Lessons Learnt’ series of AHRC policy publications.

The ‘Lessons Learnt’ project was originally funded by a grant from King’s College London. In May and June 2010 Rob Dover and Michael Goodman, with AHRC funding, ran a series of 5 policy seminars on Lessons Learnt from the History of British Intelligence and Security. These were held in partnership with the Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO), the Cabinet Office, King’s College London and The Royal United Services Institute (RUSI).

This current project aims to build upon the 2010 seminars, improving and developing the relationship between researchers and government via the production of research and briefing papers, and seminars held in Whitehall. The primary impact is on improving national security, achieved via academics contributing to the development of the government’s analytical capability.

The project is split into two halves:

• Highlighting historical examples of good analysis.
• Improving understanding of regions of current interest.

Leading academics have been specially commissioned to produce research and briefing papers for a Whitehall audience. This publication series reproduces the reports.”

{ 1 comment }

"You know the score, pal. You're not cop, you're little people!"

Questions of Obama’s proclivity for realism were raised in the New York Times, amongst others well before Obama okayed the raid that killed Osama Bin Laden. Today we’re told that he gave the State of The Union speech while neglecting to mention that he’d just ordered a commando raid in Somalia that wound up killing 9 pirates. President Obama, the man elected on a platform of “Hope”, the great left(ish) liberal dream, the man awarded a Nobel Peace Prize for being elected, has turned out to be something of a foreign policy enigma. At least, he falls far short of the anti-thesis of George W. Bush, which many of his supporters had probably hoped he’d be. What is the core understanding of Obama’s foreign policy? Not his rhetoric, but the things that he actually does. The more I think of it, the more I am convinced that he is a realist in the post-state era. When dealing with the great affairs of politics amongst nations, his record is far from clear. When it comes to the little people: individuals who do things that America considers threatening, it is not so murky. Obama’s “Shadow War” doctrine is pretty simple in this regard: if you threaten us, we will hurt you, and we won’t make much of a fuss about it, either.

On Obama’s watch, the ethical, legal, social and political restraints on killing individuals have dropped to the point that it’s okay to launch a drone strike if you think you might hit a terrorist. George W. Bush might have invaded two countries, Obama seems to consider that persistent lethal force is okay, anywhere. That is, as long as you don’t have state backing. Obama’s played an incredibly cautious hand with the big beasts of the international system: states. The closest he’s come to flexing muscles was Libya, and there he was content to put about 2/5ths of the cash in, compared to US leadership in Afghanistan, which is still haeomorraging money. When it comes to the terrorists, militants and pirates, he’s okay with killing them, but he doesn’t talk about it all that much, and even then, only really in passing.

What strikes me about this is that it is, in essence, the realist critique of liberal theories of international relation: your talk, your speech, your laws, they’re all okay and fine, but when it comes down to it, the gloves come off. How Obama has approached supposedly weak states such as Yemen, Syria and Iran is supposedly indicative of a liberal foreign policy – respect for international law, sabre-rattling in the august institution of the UN and so on and so forth. I think that any real critique of Obama’s foreign policy should include the fact that people who are pretty much defenceless (well, unless someone figures out a cheap way of protecting against 24 hour surveillance and JDAMs) are getting killed on the presumption that they might pose a threat in future, or that their very existence is a threat. Whereas George W. Bush may have contorted international law past breaking point before tilting at WMD windmills, Obama seems wholly content with ignoring it. How? Because in these affairs he is the anti-thesis of the neo-conservative. See the SOTU speech for details: “For the first time in two decades, Osama bin Laden is not a threat to this country.” In fairness, he already did the slayed-the-dragon speech, but the fact that the death of OBL barely warrants a footnote in the summation of a year is interesting. In case you’re wondering, the killing of Anwar al-Awlaki doesn’t even warrant a mention.

I write all the above not because I think the policies are necessarily wrong, or that Obama is a bad president, and so on and so forth. Rather, the conduct of Obama’s foreign policy reminds me of an adult stepping on ants whilst on the way to work – there are more important things to worry about.  Obama is a man of big (some say too big) ideas, and the US has a hell of a lot on its plate (global financial armageddon, China, the usual laundry list). I used to consider the silence that surrounds the targeted killing program somewhat deafening, but now I think of it in a slightly different sense. After all, when the world is falling down, will anyone really miss a few self-proclaimed terrorists? Obama seems to have astutely guessed that these men-without-country are vulnerable, in that their own territorial sovereigns will offer them up for dead (Yemen), as long as not too much of a fuss is made (and in Pakistan’s case, they get to complain about it loud enough for domestic constituents to hear). Rather than proclaim these people so evil as to warrant special measures, Obama’s foreign policy appears to reduce them to the point of unimportance, past the point, incidentally, where the administration cares whether stepping on them might violate some legal principle or other. As long as no-one kicks up a fuss, and the Supreme Court refuses jurisdiction, the results are left to speak for themselves. After all, who’s going to call America to account over a couple of hundred people? Russia? China? I’m sure both are quite glad that America is coming around to their way of slicing Gordian knots in two.

{ 6 comments }

T

Computer says No.

In the news this week and last has been the Stop On-Line Piracy Act (SOPA) which was up for a vote in the Senate. If you don’t know what SOPA is about then look here SOPA and PIPA: Just the Facts for a quick summary. In a nutshell, it’s about stopping people in the United States from downloading films and music from websites like The Pirate Bay and Megaupload by blocking access to those sites. Site blocking by governments is generally considered illiberal and the proposal made a lot of people very angry. They protested loudly and effectively and the bill was killed. Again, a short roundup is here SOPA and PIPA: What Went Wrong. There has been a certain amount of congratulatory back-slapping and hearty well-doning amongst Web activists (I suppose you might call them that). As it says in the second article linked above:

… no one — not supporters nor opponents — anticipated the massive response by Internet users, and no one could predict the effect the blackout, led by Reddit.com, would have on lawmakers and the legislative process.

Everyone underestimated the Web, “which is sort of the beauty of it,” said Maura Corbett, president of the Glen Echo Group and spokeswoman for NetCoalition, a tech trade group opposed to the bills.

“This was Outside the Beltway descending on Inside the Beltway, and we all just bore witness to it,” she said. “People are fed up. Washington is broken, and now Washington wants to subject the Internet to it? The Internet said no.”

Now, KOW readers–all three of you–will know that I am myself in the ‘fed up’ category. I too reckon ‘Washington’ (taken as a simile for ‘government’ by and large, including ours in Britain) is broken, out of steam, up the creek without a paddle (pick your metaphor) and I positively do not welcome it meddling. But… I can’t quite join the ranks of the gleeful on this one. The thing is while I’m not really sure that SOPA was a good cure for it we do have a serious ailment here. ‘Knowledge economies’ such as we are becoming, or you may say have already become since we tunnelled out the manufacturing things sector years ago, have to be able to get people to pay for the stuff they still do make which more and more is intangible and digital. That’s what it comes down to, right? It’s a security issue: how are we going to make our way in the world?

For my money, Andrew Orlowski gets it entirely right in this article from The Register White House Shelves SOPA… Now What? The gist of what he says: SOPA not really good but Silicon Valley needs to grow (and smarten) up. Along the way he makes some astute observations, such as this one:

China today mirrors the dynamic growth of the United States 100 years ago, and has the same buccaneering disrespect for other people’s stuff. Which leaves the question of how to compete. The West doesn’t do manufacturing any more, so the ‘intangible’ or ‘invisible’ inventions are much more important. The West can’t afford not to protect its inventors and creators: if it can’t, there’s nothing to build the service economy of the future upon, and life becomes a diminishing series of asset bubbles. This is simple, brutal economics, and Utopian waffle about internet freedoms do not cut much muster – at least not on a planet where unicorns don’t have the vote, and the emerging Eastern economies are delighted to take what they can.

I often find with discussions of things ‘cyber’ that we are too much impressed by how NEW and unprecedented everything and fascinated by the shiny new technology. It’s a bad habit because, as Orlowski points out, this isn’t at all a new situation. Perhaps Americans forget their own attitudes towards foreign copyright right up to the 20th century. It went something like this ‘oooh, shiiiny, let’s have that.’ No ‘thank you’ and no damn royalties either. Ever read Charles Dickens’ satirical novel Martin Chuzzlewit and wondered about its vicious anti-Americanism? It makes sense when you understand that American publishers at the time were taking his books published in Britain and reprinting them in cheap copies while not paying him one red cent for his efforts. What’s more they were selling these cheap copies into other English-speaking markets. In technical terms this is called ‘taking the piss’ and it pissed off a lot of 19th century ‘content creators’ in a big way.

OK, the shoe’s on the other foot, what goes around comes around, etc and so on… but allow me one more observation: yes, we should act to protect the digitizable things that our economy is good at producing otherwise, it stands to reason, the people currently making a living at it won’t be able to do so anymore. But we need to have a sense of perspective too. The United States stopped robbing Britain blind when it learned to innovate faster and make better (not just cheaper) stuff than we could. The larger argument, which Orlowski also notes, is about China and its rise. On which point I would say that their copying is not what should be worrying over the long run. It’s a good thing when you’re competitor is in your wake. That’s where you want them. Try it the other way round–it’s much, much worse. What should worry us is when they stop copying. That’s the sign that the culture of innovation, ingenuity, and constant reinvention which got you to the top in the first place has moved on.

 

 

{ 15 comments }

Strategy: Risky business

by Kenneth Payne 19 January 2012

I’ve been reading Daniel Kahneman’s book, Thinking Fast and Slow, and thinking, mostly slowly, about the many ways in which the psychology of decision-making relates to strategic studies. In fact, Kahneman himself occasionally suggests military illustrations for his and others’ research on decision making. Some readers may have come across prospect theory – Kahneman and [...]

40 comments Read more →

“That just happened”

by Jack McDonald 19 January 2012

Finally, after many years of the Department of Homeland Security messing around with Philip K. Dick, the U.S. army deciding that social scientists and anthropologists were the way forward in war, DARPA funding research to deal with the insane amounts of information produced by today’s UAVs, the USAF has decided to one up them all [...]

3 comments Read more →

First they lost their marbles, now we’ve taken their buttocks too

by Francis Grice 17 January 2012

The British have a long history of stealing/saving (depending on your perspective) historical monuments from other cultures. The Elgin Marbles are a case in point. However, I think we can all agree that we reached a new high of historical preservation/theft with the acquisition in 2003 of the buttocks from the iconic statue of Saddam Hussein by a (now former) [...]

2 comments Read more →

Cyber Arms Limitation Talk in London

by Thomas Rid 17 January 2012

Yesterday a cyber tussle in Israel has again made news, and The New York Times promptly screamed “cyber war.” So with perfect timing, the Department of War Studies is hosting a talk on “Cyber Arms Limitations.” As a bonus incentive, the speaker is Qichao Zhu, a Chinese guest at King’s College right now and otherwise the deputy director [...]

2 comments Read more →

The F35 Norwegian Blue, Not Looking so Good

by David Betz 17 January 2012

Back in July 2011 The Economist did a piece on the uncertain future of the F35 Joint Strike Fighter. Plagued by delay after delay and spiralling costs the F35 is no eagle. Its future has long been in doubt. And yet, said The Economist, this fighter undeniably had two things going for it: The first is [...]

8 comments Read more →

In Macapaca world, the HTS reigns supreme

by Rob Dover 13 January 2012

First a word on torture, and the news story yesterday. I’m not sure I’m in anything other than the smallest minority on this (certainly in the academic world) but my reading of yesterday’s news stories about our main agencies and their alleged role in torture (and the future investigation into rendition and Libya) was firstly [...]

7 comments Read more →

Lewis Carroll’s War

by David Betz 12 January 2012

Here we go again: ‘Afghan Leader Karzai Condemns “US Marines Body Desecration” Video‘. Of course this is to be condemned and I expect that the marines in question will now be facing charges under the Uniform Code of Military Justice which is designed for these sorts of instances. It may or may not cause an [...]

6 comments Read more →