Based on a total prisoner population of 88,000 since 2003, about 70,400 of ex-detainees have either aligned, or realigned with militant groups (from the Guardian article). Apparently this claim is somehow related to the 86 former inmates that had been rearrested since 10 March (about one a day, assuming an end date of mid-May). Have I got that right? That is four Divisions (at roughly 17,000 troops) of insurgents plus a Corps HQ.

I’m impressed… but I should then also urge the Iraqi Parliament to stop releasing these inmates – before they achieve numerical military superiority.

I should finally point out that at the current arrest rate, the 4 divisions at large should all be safely back behind bars in 193 years time (give or take a week).

The point being that its more than natural for the people going in to already be potential material for recruitment and that the combination of the stigma of going inside, narrow spectrum of values inside and the fact thats its avery much an ‘us or them’ enviroment makes it likly that any “turn around” is just playing nice to get out.

Even seperation of radical from moderates only works if the seperation continues once they get out as it more often than not outside where the switch back occurs and given that things like high unemployment, lack of prospects and the US occupation in Iraq still continues its not suprising that either the efforts of COIN inside the wire were not so successful or that it was all hype to begin with.