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	<title>Comments on: Europeanized defence &#8211; almost literally nothing new to report</title>
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		<title>By: Gabriele</title>
		<link>http://kingsofwar.org.uk/2010/03/europeanized-defence-almost-literally-nothing-new-to-report/comment-page-1/#comment-4811</link>
		<dc:creator>Gabriele</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 10 Mar 2010 15:32:39 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://kingsofwar.org.uk/?p=3578#comment-4811</guid>
		<description>Thomas, sorry but I don&#039;t get the point. A federal union of Europe was impossible in First and Second World War, since the european nations were at war against each other. Of course federalism was not needed back then. It wasn&#039;t even possible. 

Besides, there&#039;s a major difference now from those years: back then, european nations still pretty much leaded the world. They had a massive economic power, and the greatest military weight in the whole world. The Royal Navy alone could dominate the world, and in part it did. European nations had the edge in military technology too. 

But now? Question yourself about the differences of the world in which we live now. European nations don&#039;t lead anymore. They don&#039;t have any particular technological edge of advantage. And about sheer military power, well... look at the sad state of the Royal Navy to have an image of what happened across Europe. 

I don&#039;t talk because of fear, but because my reasoning makes me think this way. I don&#039;t see a nice future ahead for Europe, unless things start to change soon.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Thomas, sorry but I don&#8217;t get the point. A federal union of Europe was impossible in First and Second World War, since the european nations were at war against each other. Of course federalism was not needed back then. It wasn&#8217;t even possible. </p>
<p>Besides, there&#8217;s a major difference now from those years: back then, european nations still pretty much leaded the world. They had a massive economic power, and the greatest military weight in the whole world. The Royal Navy alone could dominate the world, and in part it did. European nations had the edge in military technology too. </p>
<p>But now? Question yourself about the differences of the world in which we live now. European nations don&#8217;t lead anymore. They don&#8217;t have any particular technological edge of advantage. And about sheer military power, well&#8230; look at the sad state of the Royal Navy to have an image of what happened across Europe. </p>
<p>I don&#8217;t talk because of fear, but because my reasoning makes me think this way. I don&#8217;t see a nice future ahead for Europe, unless things start to change soon.</p>
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		<title>By: thomas</title>
		<link>http://kingsofwar.org.uk/2010/03/europeanized-defence-almost-literally-nothing-new-to-report/comment-page-1/#comment-4803</link>
		<dc:creator>thomas</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 10 Mar 2010 10:20:29 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://kingsofwar.org.uk/?p=3578#comment-4803</guid>
		<description>Federalism wasn&#039;t necessary for victory in the 1st world war, nor in the 2nd. Your argument is a huge non sequitur, based entirely on fear.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Federalism wasn&#8217;t necessary for victory in the 1st world war, nor in the 2nd. Your argument is a huge non sequitur, based entirely on fear.</p>
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		<title>By: Gabriele</title>
		<link>http://kingsofwar.org.uk/2010/03/europeanized-defence-almost-literally-nothing-new-to-report/comment-page-1/#comment-4727</link>
		<dc:creator>Gabriele</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 05 Mar 2010 16:15:20 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://kingsofwar.org.uk/?p=3578#comment-4727</guid>
		<description>That may be one very realistic scenario. 
But i think that collaboration should really mitigate that kind of problems as well. And, normally, requirements in the end aren&#039;t so different from nation to nation. See France&#039;s pull out from Typhoon. It was a matter of politics decision. French absolutely wanted the leadership of the program, SNECMA engines and, overall, wanted the lion share of the work (and thus of the employment related to the program). 
But, seriously. Typhoon and Rafale are very similar. It was clearly not a divergence on requirements in that case. Also because, if French hadn&#039;t pulled out, the Typhoon would have been marinized (as studied by BAe system in 1999-2000) and made capable to employ the French nuclear missiles. Everyone would have won, in such a situation. 
With how things went, well... not everyone loses, but almost. Rafale has little market, and Typhoon has not been designed for aircraft carriers. A shame, in the end. 
But i think that serious differences about requirements aren&#039;t that likely. Not in most of the possible fields of collaboration, at least. 

It&#039;s all a matter of finding a politic balance, i fear.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>That may be one very realistic scenario.<br />
But i think that collaboration should really mitigate that kind of problems as well. And, normally, requirements in the end aren&#8217;t so different from nation to nation. See France&#8217;s pull out from Typhoon. It was a matter of politics decision. French absolutely wanted the leadership of the program, SNECMA engines and, overall, wanted the lion share of the work (and thus of the employment related to the program).<br />
But, seriously. Typhoon and Rafale are very similar. It was clearly not a divergence on requirements in that case. Also because, if French hadn&#8217;t pulled out, the Typhoon would have been marinized (as studied by BAe system in 1999-2000) and made capable to employ the French nuclear missiles. Everyone would have won, in such a situation.<br />
With how things went, well&#8230; not everyone loses, but almost. Rafale has little market, and Typhoon has not been designed for aircraft carriers. A shame, in the end.<br />
But i think that serious differences about requirements aren&#8217;t that likely. Not in most of the possible fields of collaboration, at least. </p>
<p>It&#8217;s all a matter of finding a politic balance, i fear.</p>
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		<title>By: Gunrunner</title>
		<link>http://kingsofwar.org.uk/2010/03/europeanized-defence-almost-literally-nothing-new-to-report/comment-page-1/#comment-4726</link>
		<dc:creator>Gunrunner</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 05 Mar 2010 15:59:18 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://kingsofwar.org.uk/?p=3578#comment-4726</guid>
		<description>Defense budgets are being hammered, hard, and there appears to be no let up in the foreseeable future.  Sad. .

Collective efforts to acquire kit may help reduce cost for the kit because you are sharing non-recurring R&amp;D costs, as well as enjoying lower cost-per-unit when buying in greater numbers.  Much to be said for that.

However, there are pitfalls to look out for.  For example, if you buy a piece of kit that is shared by all, that mean your kit is not fully configured to meet your unique set of requirements and the cost associated with customizing your kit may be prohibitive.  Additionally, you may not enjoy a cost-break because your country may not be cleared for sharing of certain types of technology/capability and that means a unique piece of kit (increased cost).

Just something to consider.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Defense budgets are being hammered, hard, and there appears to be no let up in the foreseeable future.  Sad. .</p>
<p>Collective efforts to acquire kit may help reduce cost for the kit because you are sharing non-recurring R&amp;D costs, as well as enjoying lower cost-per-unit when buying in greater numbers.  Much to be said for that.</p>
<p>However, there are pitfalls to look out for.  For example, if you buy a piece of kit that is shared by all, that mean your kit is not fully configured to meet your unique set of requirements and the cost associated with customizing your kit may be prohibitive.  Additionally, you may not enjoy a cost-break because your country may not be cleared for sharing of certain types of technology/capability and that means a unique piece of kit (increased cost).</p>
<p>Just something to consider.</p>
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		<title>By: Gabriele</title>
		<link>http://kingsofwar.org.uk/2010/03/europeanized-defence-almost-literally-nothing-new-to-report/comment-page-1/#comment-4714</link>
		<dc:creator>Gabriele</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 05 Mar 2010 10:04:40 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://kingsofwar.org.uk/?p=3578#comment-4714</guid>
		<description>We should be grateful they have problems as well. It would be a mess if they hadn&#039;t. And we can certainly assume that the future may hold surprises, and China developments slows down. 
Personally, i don&#039;t see it very likely, but that&#039;s just me, i guess. And anyway, i could answer to you that, while we are not sure about their rise to prominence, we are also not sure they won&#039;t grow to leadership. The economic situation, and most of the experts, agree on the fact that it is far more probable to see them rise than fall. 

And about defence, there&#039;s more to say. In time of economic crisis, jobs are invaluable. The defence industry gives a job to hundred thousands persons, and generates job for people in every sector. 
Think about the thousands of jobs and the hundreds of companies that will be kept alive and working by, to quote just one, the Carrier Vessel project. Personally, defence doesn&#039;t just protect the nation. It keeps the economy kicking and the technology progressing. Historically, it&#039;s always been this way. 
I find absurd to slash defence projects, creating thousands more unemployed persons that have a social and economic weight, to &quot;fight the recession&quot;. 
I&#039;d rather take more time to fill the public debt than cut spending and create unemployed crowds. There can be no good in such moves. 

I see, for many reasons, a strong need for defence.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>We should be grateful they have problems as well. It would be a mess if they hadn&#8217;t. And we can certainly assume that the future may hold surprises, and China developments slows down.<br />
Personally, i don&#8217;t see it very likely, but that&#8217;s just me, i guess. And anyway, i could answer to you that, while we are not sure about their rise to prominence, we are also not sure they won&#8217;t grow to leadership. The economic situation, and most of the experts, agree on the fact that it is far more probable to see them rise than fall. </p>
<p>And about defence, there&#8217;s more to say. In time of economic crisis, jobs are invaluable. The defence industry gives a job to hundred thousands persons, and generates job for people in every sector.<br />
Think about the thousands of jobs and the hundreds of companies that will be kept alive and working by, to quote just one, the Carrier Vessel project. Personally, defence doesn&#8217;t just protect the nation. It keeps the economy kicking and the technology progressing. Historically, it&#8217;s always been this way.<br />
I find absurd to slash defence projects, creating thousands more unemployed persons that have a social and economic weight, to &#8220;fight the recession&#8221;.<br />
I&#8217;d rather take more time to fill the public debt than cut spending and create unemployed crowds. There can be no good in such moves. </p>
<p>I see, for many reasons, a strong need for defence.</p>
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		<title>By: Gabriele</title>
		<link>http://kingsofwar.org.uk/2010/03/europeanized-defence-almost-literally-nothing-new-to-report/comment-page-1/#comment-4710</link>
		<dc:creator>Gabriele</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 05 Mar 2010 09:52:18 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://kingsofwar.org.uk/?p=3578#comment-4710</guid>
		<description>It&#039;s a matter of costs, over every other consideration. With the budgets for defence being cut, slashed, robbed, and made ridiculous with time, with every weapon system being acquired in smaller and smaller numbers, there&#039;s no other possible way than to share the development cost on as many shoulders as possible, and then buy together as many assets as possible. 
Because money dictates the numbers of what is bought. Not true requirements. (see HMS Ocean and cancelled sister ship, see Astute subs, see Type 45 and see the Warrior upgrade program, that&#039;s apparently going to be postponed by at least another year, despite earlier promises)</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It&#8217;s a matter of costs, over every other consideration. With the budgets for defence being cut, slashed, robbed, and made ridiculous with time, with every weapon system being acquired in smaller and smaller numbers, there&#8217;s no other possible way than to share the development cost on as many shoulders as possible, and then buy together as many assets as possible.<br />
Because money dictates the numbers of what is bought. Not true requirements. (see HMS Ocean and cancelled sister ship, see Astute subs, see Type 45 and see the Warrior upgrade program, that&#8217;s apparently going to be postponed by at least another year, despite earlier promises)</p>
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		<title>By: Skimmer</title>
		<link>http://kingsofwar.org.uk/2010/03/europeanized-defence-almost-literally-nothing-new-to-report/comment-page-1/#comment-4707</link>
		<dc:creator>Skimmer</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 05 Mar 2010 09:13:11 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://kingsofwar.org.uk/?p=3578#comment-4707</guid>
		<description>Also we should all resist the temptation to assume that country X or Y will inexorably rise to prominence. Remember what everyone was saying about Japan in the 80’s? 

Look into China’s bad debts, and especially Russia’s demographics to find their Achilles Heels. In fact I strongly recommend you read this excellent article about dependency ratios http://www.gladwell.com/2006/2006_08_28_a_risk.html for a different perspective.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Also we should all resist the temptation to assume that country X or Y will inexorably rise to prominence. Remember what everyone was saying about Japan in the 80’s? </p>
<p>Look into China’s bad debts, and especially Russia’s demographics to find their Achilles Heels. In fact I strongly recommend you read this excellent article about dependency ratios <a href="http://www.gladwell.com/2006/2006_08_28_a_risk.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.gladwell.com/2006/2006_08_28_a_risk.html</a> for a different perspective.</p>
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		<title>By: Skimmer</title>
		<link>http://kingsofwar.org.uk/2010/03/europeanized-defence-almost-literally-nothing-new-to-report/comment-page-1/#comment-4706</link>
		<dc:creator>Skimmer</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 05 Mar 2010 09:07:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://kingsofwar.org.uk/?p=3578#comment-4706</guid>
		<description>“And obviously, for the future, joint-development of new assets will be a must. The future tank, even if it is still far away in time, will be an European design. No nation will be able to design it by itself. And same, gradually, goes for the rest.”

Is this fundamentally necessary? Exactly what is stopping the armies of interested nation states issuing a project with designated requirements to the private arms companies? 
The US Government isn’t designing the F35, they let those clever chaps at Boeing and Lockheed get on with it, and picked the best entry. 

If a way could be devised to keep the politicians and lobbyists out of the selection process, why would any nation run the design process?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>“And obviously, for the future, joint-development of new assets will be a must. The future tank, even if it is still far away in time, will be an European design. No nation will be able to design it by itself. And same, gradually, goes for the rest.”</p>
<p>Is this fundamentally necessary? Exactly what is stopping the armies of interested nation states issuing a project with designated requirements to the private arms companies?<br />
The US Government isn’t designing the F35, they let those clever chaps at Boeing and Lockheed get on with it, and picked the best entry. </p>
<p>If a way could be devised to keep the politicians and lobbyists out of the selection process, why would any nation run the design process?</p>
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		<title>By: Gabriele</title>
		<link>http://kingsofwar.org.uk/2010/03/europeanized-defence-almost-literally-nothing-new-to-report/comment-page-1/#comment-4703</link>
		<dc:creator>Gabriele</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 05 Mar 2010 08:02:12 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://kingsofwar.org.uk/?p=3578#comment-4703</guid>
		<description>I&#039;ve tried to base it on solid facts. But, obviously, this comes around to be, in the end, my own vision of the sectors that could be merged first. It is one analysis i believe in. The Truth is admittedly far more fleeting a thing.
Anyway, for sure, a larger amalgamation over fighting forces is still far away in time, China or not, because of the politic implications of such a move.
But seriously. Even on a mere economic plan, and not on a military one... have UK, France, Germany, whoever, any chance to still be a major power in the future, with the foreseen role of China as leading economic power from 2030 onwards? 
I think that standing alone, there&#039;s not a single nation with hopes. 
Europe, acting as a single, great organism, instead, would have many, i think. We have a lot of areas of excellence in Europe, and i&#039;m sure that lots can be done. 

And anyway, China is only part of the matter. Russia is growing stronger and stronger, and its politic orientation over eastern Europe isn&#039;t very friendly (Read Iskander missiles at the borders with Poland, read Georgia war, and many other problems). Putin made no mystery that he wants a powerful Russia: they are building a new model of SSN, a new SSBN, new strategic missiles (Bulava and more Topol M on order), are flying their stealth fighter prototype from January and have announced in these days plans for a new strategic bomber.
Besides, the admirals have pointed out their dreams for 6 aircraft carriers (doubts on the affordability of such a plan are there, obviously) and Russia is currently negotiating to buy 4 Mistral ships from France, which already scared Georgia and caused diplomatic tension. And Russia from several months already restarted its flights of bombers over the North Sea. 
I don&#039;t see a safe world around Europe. I don&#039;t really see a safe world for Europe. There&#039;s plenty of reasons to think about future, and about defence. And about defence of the resources, too. 
Europe depends far too much from oil and gas coming from  Russia. The oil pipeline crossing Georgia (probably the true reason for Russia to intervene in the conflict) is vital for Europe&#039;s interests. And the new, projected Nabucco pipeline, planned, if i remind correctly, to cross Afghanistan and reach Turkey, is another need. 
But they&#039;ll have to be protected, too.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I&#8217;ve tried to base it on solid facts. But, obviously, this comes around to be, in the end, my own vision of the sectors that could be merged first. It is one analysis i believe in. The Truth is admittedly far more fleeting a thing.<br />
Anyway, for sure, a larger amalgamation over fighting forces is still far away in time, China or not, because of the politic implications of such a move.<br />
But seriously. Even on a mere economic plan, and not on a military one&#8230; have UK, France, Germany, whoever, any chance to still be a major power in the future, with the foreseen role of China as leading economic power from 2030 onwards?<br />
I think that standing alone, there&#8217;s not a single nation with hopes.<br />
Europe, acting as a single, great organism, instead, would have many, i think. We have a lot of areas of excellence in Europe, and i&#8217;m sure that lots can be done. </p>
<p>And anyway, China is only part of the matter. Russia is growing stronger and stronger, and its politic orientation over eastern Europe isn&#8217;t very friendly (Read Iskander missiles at the borders with Poland, read Georgia war, and many other problems). Putin made no mystery that he wants a powerful Russia: they are building a new model of SSN, a new SSBN, new strategic missiles (Bulava and more Topol M on order), are flying their stealth fighter prototype from January and have announced in these days plans for a new strategic bomber.<br />
Besides, the admirals have pointed out their dreams for 6 aircraft carriers (doubts on the affordability of such a plan are there, obviously) and Russia is currently negotiating to buy 4 Mistral ships from France, which already scared Georgia and caused diplomatic tension. And Russia from several months already restarted its flights of bombers over the North Sea.<br />
I don&#8217;t see a safe world around Europe. I don&#8217;t really see a safe world for Europe. There&#8217;s plenty of reasons to think about future, and about defence. And about defence of the resources, too.<br />
Europe depends far too much from oil and gas coming from  Russia. The oil pipeline crossing Georgia (probably the true reason for Russia to intervene in the conflict) is vital for Europe&#8217;s interests. And the new, projected Nabucco pipeline, planned, if i remind correctly, to cross Afghanistan and reach Turkey, is another need.<br />
But they&#8217;ll have to be protected, too.</p>
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		<title>By: Rob Dover</title>
		<link>http://kingsofwar.org.uk/2010/03/europeanized-defence-almost-literally-nothing-new-to-report/comment-page-1/#comment-4688</link>
		<dc:creator>Rob Dover</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 04 Mar 2010 15:33:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://kingsofwar.org.uk/?p=3578#comment-4688</guid>
		<description>The questions falling out of this being: 
* Is this analysis valid, or &#039;true&#039; and 
* Will it take an overwhelming threat from China, for the sake of argument, for the political motivation to be found? Or will such a threat split Europe, into what Rumsfeld called &#039;old&#039; and &#039;new&#039; Europe and their respective preferences?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The questions falling out of this being:<br />
* Is this analysis valid, or &#8216;true&#8217; and<br />
* Will it take an overwhelming threat from China, for the sake of argument, for the political motivation to be found? Or will such a threat split Europe, into what Rumsfeld called &#8216;old&#8217; and &#8216;new&#8217; Europe and their respective preferences?</p>
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